Residential market update October 2026

Housing market remains balanced through September

New Zealand’s housing market held its steady course through September, with prices continuing to move sideways and sales activity slightly softer than a year ago. Although the 7 November general election is drawing closer, housing has remained largely outside the main political debate, suggesting its influence on market conditions will be limited.

South Island regions continue to outperform

REINZ’s September 2026 data showed national prices remaining within the sideways range seen for most of the year. Canterbury, Otago and Southland continued to outperform, supported by strong rural and tourism sectors and ongoing internal migration.

Higher housing supply limits price growth

The supply of homes for sale remains above last year’s levels and continues to be the main constraint on price growth. The spring selling season is now underway, bringing the expected seasonal increase in new listings and further competition among vendors.

Home loan rates remain broadly unchanged

Home loan rates were largely flat during September, with banks making only minor adjustments in response to changing inflation forecasts and movements in wholesale interest rates.

Election policies may have a limited market impact

Election campaigning has so far focused on issues such as the cost of living and tax policy. Some proposed tax changes could affect parts of the property market, although carve-outs have generally been introduced to limit the impact on most homeowners. With early polling pointing towards a coalition government, the final mix of policies remains uncertain.

Housing market less sensitive to oil price risks

Oil prices have climbed back towards the levels seen when the Middle East conflict began. While the initial spike contributed to a housing market slowdown earlier in the year and broader economic risks remain, the market has since become less sensitive to the issue.

Market expected to remain broadly neutral

We expect the housing market to remain broadly neutral through the rest of 2026. Spring should bring a seasonal uplift in activity, but not a material change in overall conditions. In this competitive environment, successful sales outcomes will depend on realistic price appraisals, effective marketing and dedicated salespeople.