Oil market slows, housing deals still flow

The oil shock resulting from the conflict in the Middle East has added uncertainty into the mix for 2026. For the New Zealand housing market, recent data points to a divergence, with sentiment measures showing headwinds, but actual transaction data suggesting the market is pushing through the noise.

Bayleys runs a quarterly sentiment survey which captures real-time feedback from our agents across New Zealand. We ran an extra interim update during April to understand how the oil shock is impacting the market.

The survey points to a clear shift in sentiment, with agents reporting hesitation across the market. This is not surprising given the level of media coverage about oil prices and discussion about whether interest rates will need to rise to control the resulting inflation. Recent transactional data however suggests the shift in sentiment might be an overreaction.

At national level, actual listing and sales data during March was normal relative to seasonal patterns, with both the number of new “for sale” listings and the number of sales being similar to March 2025. Data for April 2026 showed new listings continuing at normal levels, but sales counts softer at 92% of the level in the same month in 2025. Prices indices were slightly down but recent movements have been largely sideways.

From a Bayleys perspective, our own sales activity has remained at normal levels. Our completed sales count during April 2026 was +2% up on the same month in 2025. Behind the scenes, our agents are having to work harder to achieve the same outcomes.

Moving forward, we expect the pathway for interest rates will continue to be the dominant force in the market. If interest rates remain tempered with only minor lifts then the market is likely to carry forward without much disruption, with activity stable and prices continuing to move sideways. If interest rates materially change then we might see a bigger impact on activity.